Prices of apartments and houses in Poland - III quarter of 2008 (based on various databases, mainly on: szybko.pl and Expander)
and: we are betrayed by the government in credit crunch issue.
Krakow: - 7,8% Olsztyn: - 8,1% Poznan: - 7% Gdansk: - 7% Poznan: - 7% Warsow: - 2,1% Wroclaw: - 3% Bialystok: - 2,6% Opole: - 3,7% Torun: + 0,6% Lublin: + 1,8%
but:
Warsow, Wawer: + 6,7% Krakow, Bronowice: + 2,8% Gdansk, Oliwa: + 6,2% Wroclaw, Psie Pole: + 5,7% Poznan: Centre, Solacz, Piatków: 0,0% Katowice, Piotrków: + 6% Prices of houses (up to 150 sq m, compared to last year): Warsow: + 4,3% Wroclaw: + 20,3% Krakow: - 1,5% Poznan: + 5,4% Bialystok: + 40,3% Katowice: + 19,2% Szczecin: - 1,7% Lublin: + 39,4% Lodz: - 3,4% Houses over 150 sq m went up mainly in Wroclaw (+15%) and Krakow. Property market in Poland is holding rather fine, under circumstances, like we have predicted. Developers are delaying new projects because of lack of financing and clients' mortgages hardship. Real value of properties has not changed much, rather it is confidence value which sufferred. Demand for apartments and suburb's houses is still there and in 2010 we will deal again with lack of supply. Because overall economy slow down, zloty has gone down and it is more attractive for foreigners to buy now. Pound has gained almost 1/5th of its value, against zloty, with some more room to go. Land closer to main towns is very desirable because it is cheaper to build a house than to buy many apartments and property taxes there are much more affordable, especially on agricultural land with right to build on it, not to mention investment value and high possibility to change planning permission, with time. There are not many interesting offers on the market because sellers are not selling, until they are forced to and buyers are waiting, so we have waiting game now. As to credit crunch issue and government's help to deal with it we have to report very disturbing news. Banks didn't learn anything, from current situation, they are arogant, they charge small businesses 50% on business overdrafts, very often withdrawing business owerdrafts and loans,with 30 days notice + mortgages(Northern Rock, the first nationalized bank, is repossessing more houses than any other bank in UK). They are taking back loans already promised and given to the owners - that's business risk and main principle of the business and should include banking business. Looks like banks don't have to think as a business any longer and they are immune from any risk. They can breach agreements without any consecuences and whatever happen, taxpayers will pay. Better than that they are taking between 10-20% of taxpayers money, from the helping pacages and paying themselves bonuses and similar payments for failure to act honestly, ethicly and business like. If they are government's bodies now, like they basically are, then they should seek decent profits (if they know what that means) instead of maximised one and they should act to stimulate economy instead of "killing" their paying customers. It has to stop if not then small businesses (including homeowners-investors) demand that government will treat banks with the same stick and will give 30 days notice to the banks to give taxpayers' money back, which they have received to help them. Then shareholders will be able to go after what's left from these banks and after bankers as well (in USA there are already hundreds of lawsuites against banks, bankers and credit agencies without which selling worthless financial instruments wouldn't happened ).There are some criminal investigations as well because many bankers and brokers were very well aware that what they were selling was worthless. In UK, except French suing Barclay Bank, everything is hushed up - why, because taxpayers would have to pay for it anyway(BBC). I don't know why do we have to pay criminals for their crimes, on top of it they are laughing at us. We need new financial institutions which will work for the customers and economy. Most of existing banks are ethically and morally bancrupt already and no amount of taxpayers money will help them. As to property market, banks have no clue how to work with customers so everybody would make money out of it. Some banks in other countries can give you half a year, or even year break from payments, when time is not right to sell because they know that if you will sell now you will lose and bank won't get what they should. In USA banks, you can bring check to the bank and if bank is check's issuer you can receive automatically cash. In UK you have to wait few working days for your money. Not to mention various excessive charges which are not showing real interest rate and cost of your borrowing. UK banks were priviliged too long and it is time for a change for the people's sake. There is a very simple way of dealing with what's coming. Since lately, growth is achived, in majority of the countries, basically from domestic demand, we need to spread wealth more decently. You don't need sientist to see that middle class is becoming endengered species and reacher get reacher and poor get poorer. Soon reach people will be poor if they don't allow bottom workers - customers to be able afford things. Last decade of companies' profits was achived by squizzing workers. Well, you have to give them back what you have squizzed from them because you are already hitting the wall and there is no more room to go further. You need to start to use different accounting procedure. If you are giving your workers 2,5% "rise" when inflation is about 5% that means you are making so called profit out of your worker's wallets. You will have to pay decently everybody in the process and then count profit. If not, reach will be very soon poor, because there will be no customers for your products and no people who will like to work for you. In similar direction are going Obama and Sarkozy, that's why you should support them, hopefully we will find some UK and other global politicians who can understand it, sooner rather than later. Prices of apartments in Poland - I I quarter of 2008 and "credit crunch" issue: We are going green offer. Krakow: -1,90% Warsow: -1,50% Wroclaw: -0,80% Lodz: +0,50% Poznan: -1,50% Sopot: +4,20% Katowice: -2,00% Szczecin: +2,52% Torun: +2,90% Olsztyn: +1,00%
but... Wroclaw Center: + 13% Warsow, Saska Kepa: + 6% Lodz, Srodmiescie: + 4% Krakow, Bienczyce: + 4,5%
Generally, situation shows stabilization of the market, prices are between -2 to +2%. Average new built are rather going down (or developers are giving a lot of freebies to buyers, in the price, second hand apartments are steady. Luxury apartments are still going strongly up, with double number figure. In Warsow's, new build scapescraper, apartment building, with view of town and river, price of 1 sq m reached 45'000 PLN / 11'078.01 GBP which is comparable with Paris and New York. Flats built in '60-'70 and not in interesting locations are going rapidly down, like we have said before. As to view of the future: we have mixed signals. Let me know how deep, global, financial institutions are in depth and I can tell you forecast. Since they are lying, lately, about it, to the public and shareholders, nobody can say anything about it. And because they are doing it, it means we can expect very bad situation next few years. Ofcourse Poland will be affected, how deep? Depends how long it will last but one thing is sure: Poland won't be affected that much like othe countries and will come up on the top sooner then others. There is no sub-prime mortgage problem in Poland because Poles are in 85% owners without mortgage. Demand for apartments is still there, Poles are short of about 2 millions of apartments + apartments buildings built in '60-'70 will need replacement, next decade or two and developers are building even less because of lack of financing lately. [Global problem is that banks are becoming worthless institutions, instead of lending, asking for money taxpayers and shareholders, for their shortcomings (the funny part is that they get it and free market doesn't work any longer - it is like giving matches to children, who just burned your house. There are no guilty one, no changes in the way they are operating), charging for everything (including charges for paying in, which in good, old banking practice was forbidden and unheard of), including your lunch and selling products about which they have no clue, as long as they have made some short term profit and bonuses. Also last few decades problem in business is that accountants running banks and businesses rather than business people]. To help you with oncoming tribulation our business is preparing to supply customers with self sufficient smallholdings and houses which we, with our cooperatives, can buy, build or upgrade for you. With existing on the market power systems you can be self sufficient in power, water, sewage, most of the food if you like to and able to take care of. With existing law in Poland and Germany (coming to rest of the Europe soon) you can sell surplus power to your local energy company and it is mandatory for them to buy it from you. Our cooperating technitians can design solar-wind system on your house/plot to obtain that kind of result. But first thing is to buy proper plot or smallholding for it so contact us if you are interested. So far we will be able help only few customers per year and all process takes between 1-2 years. If you would like to cooperate with us in this matter (with financing, technical or product support) please contact us. Most likely we will open separate LL Company for that purpose, next year so if you would like to join us, please let us know. You will see more info on this page, next year. Good news for detached house investors: in Wroclaw it went up 15% last quarter. Prices of apartments in Poland - I quarter of 2008: Average: Krakow: + 0,20% Warsow: + 0,20% Wroclaw: + 1,60% Lodz: + 1,30% Poznań: - 2,30% Sopot: - 4,30% Katowice: - 5,10% but... Generally prices will stay on high level, it won't go much down because buildings materials are going further up, also labor, plots and transportation. Some developers will have to lower their profit margin just to sell so you will be able to find some bargains. Developers who has extensively borrowed for their projects may go down so better check them and their development or you will end up with nothing. There will be less buyers on the market because interest rates go further up but rents are going up as well so it is good news for rental market and those who had bought for buy to let.
Prices in atractive districts of:
Krakow Old Town + 8,2% Warsow Wawer + 5,4% Wroclaw Old Town + 14% Everything depends of location and standard of property. New one and properly renovated old one, in good locations are going up. Apartments in buildings built '60 - '70 will go down 30%. Also GBP is going and will further go down against PLN, in 2008, so still, investment in apartments in Poland should bring you about 10-20%, like we have stated before.
Prices of apartments in Poland until 2010:
Warsow: 20% per year Poznań : 20% per year Cracow: 10-20% per year Wroclaw: 10-20% per year Lodz: 10-20% per year, More in: Katowice, Tri City (correction of 900 PLN per sq m), Bydgoszcz, Lublin or Kielce.
Polish properties will rise in price until 2017 to level with Europe. Land : few times value of investment per year but because of law regulations you need an expert to invest in Poland. |